What a "Vision SE" could be.

[klasma]

That all is very true, but in a lot of ways I see headsets the same way I see smartphones, they didn't really get updated that much at all before iPhone was launched. I think a lot of Blackberrys would stay on the market for like 4 years without an update for example.

I think this is the most recent mention of the AVP 2 in a MacRumors article, where it is predicted for 2027: https://www.macrumors.com/2023/12/28/vision-pro-rumored-to-gain-brighter-displays/

Of course there’s plenty time for that to change, and it will also depend on how well the AVP 1 will fare. I don’t think Apple themselves know yet at this point.

 

[UCF Sam]

That all is very true, but in a lot of ways I see headsets the same way I see smartphones, they didn't really get updated that much at all before iPhone was launched. I think a lot of Blackberrys would stay on the market for like 4 years without an update for example.

You do bring up a good point though. In the case of Valve, Valve has a history of just stopping hardware projects in their tracks and not really paying attention to them much afterwards. Of course, the Steamdeck they found something that could be a hit so they stuck with it. In the case of the Quest 2, I think a lot of that also had to do with the fact that Facebook/Meta was absorbing the brand and trying to figure out a strategy at the time.

I could be very wrong and this could continue to be a niche product, but it is very unlike Apple to get into a product category and not want to make it a mass consumer device within a 2-3 years tops, timespan.

Would be nice if we get a cycle similar to the iPhone, could be possible. Spec upgrades on silicon every year (move to m3 or m4 next year) with everything else staying pretty much the same; and then a major revamp every 2 years with stuff like lighter body, better strap with integrated battery maybe, slight display upgrade. Guess it really depends on how well the product does and how much tech advances.

 

[JPack]

Judging by what a lot of people are saying, people don't understand cost at large scale or the fact that tech overall just lowers in price rapidly and quickly.

Just a few recent examples of Apple doing this:
-Cheapest first watch was $350 in 2016 and then went to $270 for the cheapest in 2 years or less (23% cost reduction)

-iPads being $500 to start and within 2 years some models were $330 (44% cost reduction)

-iPhones being $500 and within a year or two could be had for free (through subsidization but it was also subsidized to begin with at $500)

-iPhone X started out at $1k, XR was $750 so a 25% cost reduction. I know the screen wasn't as good but in general it was the same experience for most users.

People saying they will strip out the whole experience lol really? And waiting more than 2 years to update them?

I am confident that a Vision product will come out at the $2k or less price point within 2 years (or specifically within the year of 2026) that doesn't compromise on the main experience of the AVP1, as the AVP1 must be the lowest common denominator going forward, maybe the screen tech is slightly worse, build quality cheap out somewhere, etc, but even at $2k it is an incredibly expensive product. That is of course if the Vision Pro is very successful. So save this thread, I'm sticking with $2k or less (dependent on if the product does well or not).

If it ends up just kind of fizzing out, has no developer interest (it needs developers to survive and at $3500 it can't survive for over 2 years) then I'll say never mind to the idea but if history is any indicator it will get steep reductions in price of entry.

All your examples are based on relatively high volume tech. Android manufacturers had already gone there with high volume watch OLED, large tablet displays, flexible OLED, etc.

The bottleneck with Vision Pro is Sony and they are unwilling to expand production. Nobody else is asking for 4K micro OLED. Production volumes are low. It's a chicken and egg situation.

Apple Considering Shift Away From Sony for Micro-OLED Displays in Future Vision Pro Headsets

Apple is considering switching production of micro-OLED displays for future versions of the Vision Pro headset from Sony to Chinese manufacturers...

www.macrumors.com

 

[JPack]

Cheaper Vision is expected by 2025.

Apple is expected to ship only 400,000 units of Vision Pro in 2024. That's nowhere near enough units to help scale. We already know Sony is unwilling to expand production of micro OLED. Where are the price drops going to come from by 2025?

The idea that Vision Pro will set the standard and SE won't be worse is silly. Brand new technologies rarely do that. Did iPhone XR with LCD and single camera beat iPhone X? Does Tesla Model Y beat Model X?

Cheaper Apple Vision Headset Likely to Launch by End of 2025

Apple still plans to launch a more affordable version of its Vision Pro headset by the end of 2025, with the non-Pro model likely to be called...

www.macrumors.com

 

[klasma]

Cheaper Vision is expected by 2025.

Cheaper Apple Vision Headset Likely to Launch by End of 2025

Apple still plans to launch a more affordable version of its Vision Pro headset by the end of 2025, with the non-Pro model likely to be called...

www.macrumors.com

That was Gurman in June. In September Kuo said it was cancelled: https://www.macrumors.com/2023/09/26/low-cost-vision-pro-canceled/

I wouldn’t assume there are any clear plans at the moment.

 

[JPack]

That was Gurman in June. In September Kuo said it was cancelled: https://www.macrumors.com/2023/09/26/low-cost-vision-pro-canceled/

I wouldn’t assume there are any clear plans at the moment.

Everything was pushed back due to design delays and poor yields. Per Gurman, the original plan was to launch Vision Pro in 2021 and ship in 2022. As a result, it sports an M2 chip today.

Kuo's note supports the idea that the BOM for Vision Pro will remain expensive for the foreseeable future. Vision SE whenever it comes, will have to rely on lower resolution displays. The two displays represents the bulk of the BOM.

Apple is trying to get as many units of Vision out as possible to fortify their position as XR leader. Personally, I see Vision SE coming out sooner, like 2026 rather than later.

 

[WingingIt]

I actually don’t think it’ll ever get cheaper. It will just stay the same price year on year and over time inflation will make that seem more reasonable. Like, the iPhone will keep getting more expensive, the MacBook Pro will keep getting more expensive, the Vision Pro will stay $3,499. So in 5 years time, that won’t seem as expensive relative to other Apple products as it does now.

 

[gerald.d]

There is an easy way for Apple to make and market a cheaper version of the vision pro.

Drop everything needed for EyeSight, and market it as a device you use just when you are on your own.

Call it the...

Vision Solo.

 

[WingingIt]

There is an easy way for Apple to make and market a cheaper version of the vision pro.

Drop everything needed for EyeSight, and market it as a device you use just when you are on your own.

Call it the...

Vision Solo.

If they max out Sony’s manufacturing of 4k displays to make the Vision Pro and sell all of them, why would they make a cheaper one without EyeSight and split their supply of those screens between two devices? Apple don’t need to make a cheaper Vision Pro if they’re selling out as many Vision Pros as they’re able to produce.

 

[XboxEvolved]

I originally thought this was gonna be a small niche product, thought of a way it couldn't be, seemed to offend people and everyone came up with a way why it would stay niche (after being all smug about why this is the future and why they were better than others for being there early). At this point I hope it fails. **** it. lol

 

[Crow_Servo]

I originally thought this was gonna be a small niche product, thought of a way it couldn't be, seemed to offend people and everyone came up with a way why it would stay niche (after being all smug about why this is the future and why they were better than others for being there early). At this point I hope it fails. **** it. lol

Oh wow. So you’re giving up on your own thread thirty five posts in? You’re not giving this topic much of a chance to evolve. Just “**** it.“

Why do you hope it fails? Because you don’t like people that like it? It doesn’t have anything to do with the product itself or the company behind it?

I think there will eventually be a lower cost version. I wouldn’t want a compromised version myself, but I understand why the masses would want it to be less expensive. Apple tends to create an entry level version of most of their products.

I don’t think they’ll cut too many corners with this product line, but it is devilishly brilliant to introduce a $3,499 version only to later release another version that is still more expensive than the competition. Anything lower than $3,000 will look more appealing than it would if Apple’s first version was already under $3,000. Apple has sort of desensitized us to the price in some ways. They’re just like, “yeah that’s the price to join the AVP revolution.” lol

 

[gerald.d]

If they max out Sony’s manufacturing of 4k displays to make the Vision Pro and sell all of them, why would they make a cheaper one without EyeSight and split their supply of those screens between two devices? Apple don’t need to make a cheaper Vision Pro if they’re selling out as many Vision Pros as they’re able to produce.

Two rather large assumptions there.

One related to supply, and the second to demand.

But that's largely irrelevant, because this is a thread about technological hypotheticals, not logistical realities. Plenty of other threads where you can discuss those.

 

[WingingIt]

Two rather large assumptions there.

One related to supply, and the second to demand.

But that's largely irrelevant, because this is a thread about technological hypotheticals, not logistical realities. Plenty of other threads where you can discuss those.

Alright, sheesh… *bouncers throw me off the thread* 😂

You‘re right that projections of supply and demand get more speculative moving into the future, but I think for at least the next year or two supplies will be constrained based on what we already know.

And here’s a technological hypothetical for you… maybe the Vision SE (if it ever comes) will have more features than the 2024 Vision Pro. Maybe in a few years time, components supply has increased to the point that it’s worth it to Apple to bring out Vision devices at different price points. By that time, surely Apple will have a stack of new features they’re going to put into the next generation Vision Pro. So in the keynote, the new Vision Pro gets all the new stuff - whatever it is - and the Vision SE gets half the new stuff at a slightly lower price point. Maybe the next gen Vision Pro has transparent OLEDs and doesn’t need EyeSight, but the Vision SE still uses EyeSight to maintain presence in social situations?

So instead of “what is Apple gonna rip out of the Vision Pro to make the SE?” Maybe it should be “what new stuff we expect Apple to put in the Vision Pro won’t the SE get?” Technologically hypothetical enough for ya? 😉

 

[gerald.d]

Alright, sheesh… *bouncers throw me off the thread* 😂

You‘re right that projections of supply and demand get more speculative moving into the future, but I think for at least the next year or two supplies will be constrained based on what we already know.

I assume you are referring to the displays here, but what do we actually know regarding supplies of those?

Even back in August this very site was reporting that Apple were considering moving away from Sony for displays for future versions of the Vision Pro and other potential devices.

Apple Considering Shift Away From Sony for Micro-OLED Displays in Future Vision Pro Headsets

Apple is considering switching production of micro-OLED displays for future versions of the Vision Pro headset from Sony to Chinese manufacturers...

www.macrumors.com

But we don't actually have any facts at all as far as I'm aware.

I think you make some good points regarding the potential that a future lower cost device retains all of the functionality of the first one, and the next Pro level one adds features and/or performance.

It might be interesting to speculate what those additional features might be.

Personally I would love to know what the size/weight/cost of a device with all the EyeSight stuff removed would be, because for me (and I respect it is just my personal preference) I think it's all completely unnecessary. We have conversations with people all the time without needing to stare at their eyes (or freaky digital recreations of them).

 

[cdsapplefan]

Easy, drop the 4K OLED screens for 2K LCD screens like the META products. Will cut the cost by a lot and also the exact reason I am not waiting for a lower cost version.

Apple has been moving away from transitioning away from LCD for a while now, there upcoming iPhone SE 6th generation will even finally have OLED, so don’t think they will go back to LCD in the Future especially on a new product like Vision Pro 🥽 🕶️

 

[cdsapplefan]

Apple is not going back to LCD, they have been transitioning all there product lineup to OLED.

OLED prices will drop in the future on the bare minimum non premium OLED’s, so Apple will use those to cut the prices down, but No they will not be going back to LCD

 

[cdsapplefan]

The Watch SE took 5½ years, and the AVP is a more difficult product both conceptually and technologically, so I wouldn’t hold my breath.

Yeah, Apple will let the Vision Pro tech mature for 5 years before coming out with a super bare minimum Vision Pro SE, as that is not Apple’s intended Market for the product. They will be marketing this for Professional’s doctors and gamers etc etc

 

[attohs]

The next version will be Apple Vision Sport. It will utilize an A17 "Vision" processor paired with the R1 from the Apple Vision Pro. It will not support features such as Breakthrough and Eye Sight (these are productivity features). Similar (possibly the same) Micro-OLED internal displays. 128GB and 256GB models. Optional well balanced headband with limited battery integrated into the headband. $1999 this fall. Apple Fitness is the only service currently missing from Vision Pro.

 

[Crow_Servo]

The next version will be Apple Vision Sport. It will utilize an A17 "Vision" processor paired with the R1 from the Apple Vision Pro. It will not support features such as Breakthrough and Eye Sight (these are productivity features). Similar (possibly the same) Micro-OLED internal displays. 128GB and 256GB models. Optional well balanced headband with limited battery integrated into the headband. $1999 this fall. Apple Fitness is the only service currently missing from Vision Pro.

That’s a creative name and everything, but don’t forget how import AR is to Apple (and Tim Cook). VR without AR isn’t their objective. I bring this up because I assume you meant ”passthrough” when you said “breakthrough.” No passthrough means no AR. No passthrough/AR and no EyeSight would make for an overly simplified Apple Vision device in my strong opinion.

 

[attohs]

That’s a creative name and everything, but don’t forget how import AR is to Apple (and Tim Cook). VR without AR isn’t their objective. I bring this up because I assume you meant ”passthrough” when you said “breakthrough.” No passthrough means no AR. No passthrough/AR and no EyeSight would make for an overly simplified Apple Vision device in my strong opinion.

"Breakthrough" is a branded collaborative feature that Apple has demoed on the Vision Pro. It allows a physical person to fade into a fully virtual environment. Apple Vision Sport will still support passthrough, but with less sensors involved hence lacking the specific Breakthrough feature.

 

[Crow_Servo]

"Breakthrough" is a branded collaborative feature that Apple has demoed on the Vision Pro. It allows a physical person to fade into a fully virtual environment. Apple Vision Sport will still support passthrough, but with less sensors involved hence lacking the specific Breakthrough feature.

Oh ok, that term hasn’t sunk in with me yet. Thanks for teaching me it.

 

[gerald.d]

The next version will be Apple Vision Sport. It will utilize an A17 "Vision" processor paired with the R1 from the Apple Vision Pro. It will not support features such as Breakthrough and Eye Sight (these are productivity features). Similar (possibly the same) Micro-OLED internal displays. 128GB and 256GB models. Optional well balanced headband with limited battery integrated into the headband. $1999 this fall. Apple Fitness is the only service currently missing from Vision Pro.

This is very interesting.

What are the implications going to be though with the Pro running a desktop class chip and the Sport running a mobile one?

 

[dotnet]

Not sure whether Vision SE or simply non-Pro:

 

[dotnet]

So instead of “what is Apple gonna rip out of the Vision Pro to make the SE?” Maybe it should be “what new stuff we expect Apple to put in the Vision Pro won’t the SE get?”

They might replace or augment the front and down facing cameras that pick up gestures with a Siri-like interface, where you control the Vision via voice commands. The feature might be called Tell-a-Vision.

 

[Macalicious2011]

Currently there is

Vision Pro: $3,500
-–—
—-—-—-
——-—-——-——-
BIG GAP
——-—-——
———
——-——
Meta Quest: $500

This reminds me of when the Apple Watch launched. It was expensive, had amazing phone integration but had terrible battery life and a screen that was too small to be useful. The alternative were fitness trackers which incredible battery life and price but lacking in smart features.

I will buy a headset when the gap between Meta Quest and Vision Pro has closed. A major use case is travel. Watching movies. For that you need a lot of local storage for downloading HUGE 3D movies or shows. For that a Netflix app is a deal breaker. With Apple in the bad books with developers, we don’t know when or if there will be a Netflix app.

I would also like profiles so that family members can share Vision Pro by signing in with their own iphones. 12-18 months from now is probably when headsets will be well optimised for clearly identified use cases and with improved battery life.