Kuo: 2024 MacBooks and iPads to Feature 3nm Chips, But Demand Might Fall Below Expectations

[MacRumors]

Apple plans to release new MacBooks and iPads with 3nm chips in 2024, but demand for the devices might be "below expectations" due to a "lack of growth drivers," according to research shared today by supply chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.

Kuo explained in a blog post on Medium:

Apple's 3nm demand for 2024 would be below expectations. In 2023, Apple's MacBook and iPad shipments declined significantly by approximately 30% and 22% to 17 million and 48 million units, respectively. The sharp decline is attributed to the end of work-from-home (WFH) demand and diminishing user appeal for the new specifications (Apple Silicon and Mini-LED). Looking ahead to 2024, Apple's 3nm demand is negatively impacted by the lack of growth drivers for MacBook and iPad.

Kuo is essentially saying that Apple will no longer have the growth catalysts that it did over the past few years, such as a pandemic-driven work-from-home boost in demand or the newness of Apple silicon, which spurred many customers to upgrade from Intel-based Macs. However, given Mac and iPad sales already significantly declined in 2023, Apple will at least have more favorable year-over-year sales comparisons in 2024.

It's also worth noting that the next iPad Pro models are expected to feature OLED displays, which could be another growth driver for that product line.

Kuo recently said that he does not expect Apple to release any new MacBooks or iPads between now and the end of 2023, although it was recently rumored that a new iPad mini is still possible this year. If Kuo is accurate, it is possible that Apple will wait until 2024 to announce the M3 chip, which could result in a quiet end to this year for the company.

Article Link: Kuo: 2024 MacBooks and iPads to Feature 3nm Chips, But Demand Might Fall Below Expectations

 

[MrAperture]

It’s just hard to justify upgrading devices when base storage and base memory doesn’t justify their starting prices.

Start iPad storage at 128GB and MacBooks at 512GB and MacBook Pros at 1TB.

NAND prices have drastically fallen in the last year.

 

[bassanoclapper]

Growth was inevitably going to slow once the Covid surge had subsided. Maybe less 'diminishing user appeal for the new specifications' and quite a bit of tightening of purse strings in the current economic climate

 

[mikethebigo]

M4 bandwagon over here. Want a 3nm on a more optimized node.

 

[jclardy]

I think the drop in demand is just that M1 was just such a breath of fresh air compared to the i9 MBP's from before. I had a last gen i9 16" and it was slow, hot, and battery life was terrible. The M1 MBP solved all those things, added a way better screen, incredible portability and great connectivity (Magsafe, SD Card, HDMI)...

Basically, people used to upgrade year over year in the hope that they would finally find a "good enough" machine...the M1 MBP is that machine for 95% of users.

I think my M1 will hold me out till the M4 era at least.

 

[SamRyouji]

It’s just hard to justify upgrading devices when base storage and base memory doesn’t justify their starting prices.

Start iPad storage at 128GB and MacBooks at 512GB and MacBook Pros at 1TB.

NAND prices have drastically fallen in the last year.

Not only that, but considering how long people hold onto their iPads and MacBooks, it explains logically why demand will fall below expectations.
.
/rant begins
All in all, whose expectations? Greedy investors who wants every single company they invested to grow sales exponentially each year? There's only so much humans in this planet. In before they expect price increase tenfold and every humans in this planet (newborn and near deaths included) to buy twelve of each their products?
Release product less often, have logical sales projection, be content. That's when it will benefits all (them and us consumers). But alas, in this "platinum" age of capitalism it will be 100% impossible to happen.
/rant over

 

[erikkfi]

Maybe release them in interesting colors and people will upgrade out of pure desire.

 

[LedRush]

As soon as we get an 11-inch and 12.9 inch iPad Pro with the same technology and specs, I'll buy the 11-inch. I've been stuck on the 12.9 ever since that one got the better screen.

 

[JitteryJimmy]

If the sales demand of a future product is expected to sell below expectations, then the expectation is unexpected. Which negates the whole idea of an expectation.

 

[toobravetosave]

It’s almost like 10% better stuff every year isn’t actually worth it

 

[mozumder]

I have a maxed out M1 MacBook Pro 16", cost like $7k. I'm not gonna upgrade it for another 10 years when things actually physically break.

 

[syklee26]

Perhaps Apple might go with what they did with iPhone pro max, basically eliminating 128gb option on iPad and force people to go with 256gb.

They could do the same with Macbooks and start Airs with 512gb and Pros with 1tb.

 

[Apple Mac Daz]

OLED iPad Pro is a instant buy to upgrade my 12.9 M1

 

[Mac Fly (film)]

I don't want a chonky MBP and don't need its power, but I would appreciate a MBA with an SD Card like the one I'm typing on has.

 

[Born Again]

Consider this - Marques Brownlee the biggest tech YouTuber hasn’t upgraded his mbp 16 m1 ultra.

I wish they made it in black

 

[JPack]

The technical people knew N3 wouldn’t bring substantial performance benefits.

The business people know most consumers don’t upgrade computers every 2-3 years.

It’s all in line with expectations. These days, people tend to upgrade if there are form factor updates.

 

[mrat93]

It’s just hard to justify upgrading devices when base storage and base memory doesn’t justify their starting prices.

Start iPad storage at 128GB and MacBooks at 512GB and MacBook Pros at 1TB.

NAND prices have drastically fallen in the last year.

I was about to say “I think the base configs are fine, but the upgrade pricing is where they really lose me”, but…

It’s insane to me that some Macs start with less storage than they did 10 years ago. Price per GB on SSDs is cheaper now than it was for HDDs 10 years ago.

Flash storage is so cheap now, that it shouldn’t nearly double the cost of the machine to max out on storage, and it shouldn’t cost $200 minimum just to get some breathing room — but not enough room for many large files at all.

This article claims demand will be low… My demand would be through the roof if I could pay only a 300% premium on RAM and storage, on top of the base price, which is sad.

 

[MayaUser]

It’s just hard to justify upgrading devices when base storage and base memory doesn’t justify their starting prices.

Start iPad storage at 128GB and MacBooks at 512GB and MacBook Pros at 1TB.

NAND prices have drastically fallen in the last year.

what drastically fallen in 1 year..the price remain the same for the next nand performance

 

[iamgalt]

As soon as they release an M3 equipped iPad Pro (hopefully with a larger screen size), I'll be buying. It'll be a nice upgrade from my A12Z, 4th gen model.

 

[Tuck_]

Bump up the base RAM and SSD and we'll talk, Apple.

Oh, and maybe a non-anemic macOS update every so often would help.

 

[Nik]

In other news: Water is wet.

 

[schneeland]

Well, my personal demand is pretty steady

But as others have said: it mostly depends on the package Apple offers. Generally, I'm in the market for both a new MacBook (Air) and new iPads (Pro). But the improvements need to be large enough to justify shelling out >1k€ per device. An increase memory in base models as well as better displays would be a reason to do so in both cases.

 

[uffenman]

I love my 2017 12" MacBook and if a comparable was available I'd upgrade tomorrow; however, going from 2 lbs to 2.7 lbs for a 13" MBA is not an upgrade for me, but rather a downgrade. Apple: please release a 12.5" MB M-series chip light laptop and I'll "upgrade" immediately. Otherwise, I don't need or want the extra weight as I'm on the road 80% of the time. I can't be the only one out there and don't tell me there isn't a market for it either.

 

[Jett0516]

Get rid of the notch on the MacBooks and people will line up for it. 💸

 

[Lakersfan74]

I’m interested in $1299 13 inch MacBook Pro with all the ports but I don’t want the old one. Not paying 2k to go 14 inch. 16/256 should be the minimum on the 13 inch.