The midday Monday market mood is upbeat. Small-caps again are winning the day with the Russell 2000 up 1.5%. Techs are also having a good day. Other indices are in green as well. Goldman Sachs crushed earnings expectations and that is lifting bank stocks, especially those with investment banking divisions. Fed Chairman Powell is speaking at lunchtime today. His remarks will be televised. Economists will be tuning in as these comments come after the news on inflation last week that showed consumer prices tracking lower and on the way to the Fed's target rate.

The midday Monday market mood is upbeat. Small-caps again are winning the day with the Russell 2000 up 1.5%. Techs are also having a good day. Other indices are in green as well. Goldman Sachs crushed earnings expectations and that is lifting bank stocks, especially those with investment banking divisions. Fed Chairman Powell is speaking at lunchtime today. His remarks will be televised. Economists will be tuning in as these comments come after the news on inflation last week that showed consumer prices tracking lower and on the way to the Fed's target rate.

The Vickers Top Insider Picks is a daily report that utilizes a proprietary algorithm to identify 25 companies with compelling insider purchase histories based on transactions over the past three months.

Not only Wall Street but the entire nation will continue to monitor developments this week related to the attempted assignation of former President Donald Trump. In other news, earnings season moves into high gear and Fed Chairman Powell speaks publicly again. Wall Street will continue to ponder if a first interest rate cut is likely in September, as the case for such a move seems to be building. Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 1.6%, the S&P 500 gained 0.9%, and the Nasdaq was higher by 0.3%. Year to date, the Dow is higher by 6%, the S&P is up 18%, and the Nasdaq is higher by 23%. On the economic calendar, Chairman Powell speaks on Monday in Washington, D.C. and his remarks will be telecast live. He spoke on Capitol Hill last week, but those comments were before key data showed inflation slowing on the consumer side. On Tuesday, Retail Sales data is due. On Wednesday, Housing Starts, Building Permits, Industrial Production, and Capacity Utilization all will be updated, as will Leading Economic Indicators on Thursday. On the earnings calendar, the new reporting season kicks into high gear this week. On Monday, Goldman Sachs and BlackRock report. On Tuesday, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, PNC Financial, UnitedHealth, and J.B. Hunt Transport. On Wednesday, Johnson & Johnson, United Airlines, and U.S. Bancorp. On Thursday, Netflix, Taiwan Semiconductor, Abbot Labs, and Domino's Pizza. And on Friday, American Express, Travelers, and Halliburton. Only 5% of S&P 500 companies have reported so far. General expectations are for 8%-12% earnings growth for 2Q. This follows 8% growth in 1Q and 10% growth in 4Q23. At Argus, we forecast EPS growth for all of 2024 coming in at roughly 8%-9%. Last week, there was good news on inflation. CPI was 3.0% for June, down from 3.3% in May. Core CPI dipped to 3.3% from 3.4% in the prior month. On the producer side, the news was mixed. PPI picked up to 2.6% in June from 2.4% in May, but core PPI slowed to 3.1% from 3.3% in the prior month. Mortgage rates fell to 6.89% for the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage. Gas prices rose a penny to $3.49 per gallon for the average price of regular gas. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow indicator is forecasting for 2Q and calls for expansion of 2.0%. The Cleveland Fed CPINow indicator forecasts 3.01% for July CPI. The next Fed rate decision comes on July 31, with odds at 6% for a cut. By mid-September, there is a big jump in the odds to 96%. This spike follows the good news on inflation last week and the jobs report the week prior. By November 7, the odds are at 99%, and for December 18, odds call for a second cut according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Stocks are higher with small-caps again leading the way, up 1.5%. There's a lot of news driving market mood today - big bank earnings, inflation data on the wholesale side, and a re-pivot back to tech stocks after a selloff yesterday. Big banks are reporting good and bad new. Today's PPI data came in hotter than expected, with June up 2.6% compared to a year ago. On a monthly basis, prices kicked up 0.2% after being unchanged the month before. Today's inflation data comes a day after the very welcome news on the consumer side that CPI fell to 3.0% in June, more than expected. Wall Street will need to rest up this weekend as earnings, across a broad specter of sectors, really kick into gear next week. It's likely to be a long weekend for President Biden as the drum continues to beat for him to drop out of the presidential race.

The Vickers Top Insider Picks is a daily report that utilizes a proprietary algorithm to identify 25 companies with compelling insider purchase histories based on transactions over the past three months.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Insider Picks is a daily report that utilizes a proprietary algorithm to identify 25 companies with compelling insider purchase histories based on transactions over the past three months.

Early last week, we talked about the broadening stock market, but noted that the expansion in outperformance remained within Information Technology. We have seen a pause in the leading semiconductor stocks, but a pop in computer hardware and software. We also have seen nice short-term moves in banks, with some breaking out of bullish bases. But it's the semis we are worried about for a number of reasons. The industry has been on fire, soaring by 31% since April 19; by 79% since October 2023; and by 165% since October 2022. There have been a few decent pullbacks along the way, which is positive as each pullback creates a bullish base and a platform that turns into chart support on the way down. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) is 70% above its 200-week exponential average. That was exceeded only after the rebound from the pandemic, so we are in rarefied air. While the S&P 500, S&P 100, Invesco S&P Top 50 (XLG), Nasdaq, and Nasdaq 100 all have made all-time highs over the past five days, the SOXX has done so by a mere $0.31. The Van Eck Vectors Semi ETF (SMH), the Dow Jones U.S. Semiconductor Index ($DJUSSC), and "King Nvidia" have not. The SOXX relative strength (RS) versus the QQQs has been flat since early March, while the RS of the other two semi indices has been flat over the past month. The vortex indicator for the semi stocks is either just crossing into sell territory or is close. The last time this occurred was in late March and again in August to October of 2023, both early days in semi pullbacks. (Mark Arbeter, CMT)

The Vickers Top Insider Picks is a daily report that utilizes a proprietary algorithm to identify 25 companies with compelling insider purchase histories based on transactions over the past three months.