The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the U.S. economy generated 206,000 new jobs in June, slightly above our forecast of 175,000 and the consensus of 190,000. June's increase in payrolls and revisions lower to results from May and April took the three-month average to 177,000, below the 12-month average of 220,000 and signaling a cooling job market that -- when combined with unemployment that is creeping higher -- should allow the Fed to reduce interest rates this year. The unemployment rate rose to 4.1% from 4.0%, and remains below the threshold for triggering the widely followed Sahm Rule recession indicator. The four-week average of initial jobless claims is 238,500, which remains well below the 300,000 that would trigger our concerns about a recession. Average hourly earnings increased 10 cents month to month and are 3.9% higher year over year (compared to 4.1% in May). The average workweek remained at 34.3 hours for a third consecutive month. Job gains occurred in government; healthcare; social assistance; and construction. Employment showed little or no change in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction; manufacturing; wholesale trade; transportation and warehousing; information; financial activities; leisure and hospitality; and other services. Employment declined slightly in retail trade and in professional and business services. After this report, stock futures rose slightly from pre-release levels and the yield on the 10-year Treasury dropped to 4.32% from 4.34%. Before the release, futures contracts suggested a 73% probability that the Fed will reduce the funds target from the current 5.25%-5.50% when it meets in September. After the release, that ticked up to 75%. The chance of a second cut by the end of the year rose to 73% from 66%.

At midday Thursday, the major benchmarks are flat and trading feels tentative. Individual stocks are where the drama is. Micron Technology (MU) is lower after reporting earnings and saying it sees lower profits ahead than expected. International Paper (IP) is down as it is no longer an acquisition candidate of Brazilian paper company Suzano. Wall Street is waiting to see what happens with the first U.S. Presidential debate tonight. This is bringing up chatter on how the candidates stack up on inflation, rates, jobs, and other economic issues, and who might be better for driving stocks up. The Labor Department reported that jobless claims rose to nearly 1.84 million for the week ended June 22. Also, key inflation indicator, PCE, is due tomorrow morning.

Lennar Corp. based in Miami, is one of the two largest builders of homes based on 73,087 closings, across approximately 23 states, in FY23. Rival D.R. Horton actually delivered 82,917. Lennar's $34.2 billion in revenue ranks close to Horton's $35.5 billion helped by an average sales price that is about $60,000 higher. The company's East region is its biggest, accounting for 31% of deliveries. Lennar builds step-up (68% of closings), entry level (28%) and retirement (4%) homes, with an average selling price of $446,000. The company also provides mortgage financing. Lennar's Multifamily business develops and manages apartment complexes through joint ventures. Homebuilding represented $32.7 billion of the company's $34.2 billion in FY23 revenue. It is also the biggest contributor to pretax earnings. The company's fiscal year ends on November 30.

Lennar is one of the largest public homebuilders in the United States. The company’s homebuilding operations target first-time, move-up, and active adult homebuyers mainly under the Lennar brand name. Lennar’s financial-services segment provides mortgage financing and related services to its homebuyers. Miami-based Lennar is also involved in multifamily and single-family for rent construction and has invested in numerous housing-related technology startups.